Politics

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 16, 2012

The delegate hunt continues as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum battle it out for the Republican presidential nomination. Following Santorum’s wins in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, the former Massachusetts governor leads the former Pennsylvania by 37% to 28% among Republican voters nationally. That nine point advantage is down slightly from 12 points a week ago and 16 points two weeks ago.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now picks up 17% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns 10% of the vote.

Next on the schedule is the Illinois primary on Tuesday. Romney leads Santorum there 41% to 32%, but given that 32% of voters still could change their minds, this represents a potential opportunity for Santorum.  Most Gingrich supporters (55%) say they could change their vote, and they overwhelmingly prefer Santorum over Romney in a two-man race.

48% in Florida View Rubio Favorably

New Florida Senator Marco Rubio has frequently been mentioned as a possible Republican vice presidential candidate, but voters in his home state have mixed feelings now about the national political newcomer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds that 48% have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the Republican freshman senator, while 41% view him at least somewhat unfavorably. This includes 35% with a Very Favorable view of Rubio and 26% with a Very Unfavorable one. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National Poll: Romney 37%, Santorum 28%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 10%

The gap between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is only slightly narrower following the latter’s primary wins in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Romney with 37% of the vote to Santorum’s 28%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picks up 17% support while Texas Congressman Ron Paul grabs 10% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Illinois: Romney 41% Santorum 32% Gingrich 14%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the lead in Illinois but lots of voters are still trying to decide in the final days before the state’s GOP Primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports poll in the state shows Romney at 41% and Rick Santorum at 32%. Trailing further back are Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at seven percent (7%).  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Illinois survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

48% Blame Bad Economy on Bush Recession, 46% Blame Obama's Policies

More voters are putting the blame on President Obama's policies when it comes to today's still-struggling economy.  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 48% still place more blame on the economic recession that began under President George W. Bush, but that ties the lowest finding in nearly three years of tracking. Now, nearly as many (46%) say the current president's policies are more to blame, the highest finding since August 2010. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Two separate surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on March 7-8 and 13-14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for each survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Oppose Justice Department’s Blocking of Texas Voter ID Law

The Obama administration has blocked Texas’ new law requiring voters to show photo identification at the polls, saying it would suppress Hispanic voter turnout, and the United Nations is now investigating the fairness of such laws in Texas and other states. But voters in this country still overwhelmingly support voter ID laws and don’t think they discriminate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 72% of Likely U.S. Voters believe voters should be required to show photo identification such as a driver’s license before being allowed to vote.  That’s in line with findings from December but remains down slightly from the 75% to 82% of voters who have supported a photo ID voting requirement in surveys since June 2006. Only 22% are opposed to the photo ID requirement. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13-14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just 35% Are Confident Medicare Will Pay All Promised Benefits

Barely one-third of voters are confident that they will receive all of the Medicare benefits that they are entitled to, and a plurality still supports raising the future Medicare eligibility age to help cover the cost of benefits.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 35% of Likely U.S. Voters are at least somewhat confident that Medicare will pay all its promised benefits to them in their lifetime. This includes just 11% who are Very Confident. Sixty percent (60%), on the other hand, are not confident that they will receive all promised benefits, with 27% who are Not At All Confident. These findings show little change from  November, when regular tracking on the question began. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 9-10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

California GOP Primary: Romney 43%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 8%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney holds a 20-point lead over Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the delegate-rich California Republican primary.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Golden State finds Romney earning 43% support, while the former Pennsylvania senator receives 23% of the vote.  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a distant third with 15% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with eight percent (8%).  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This California survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Texas GOP Primary: Romney 32%, Santorum 30%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 9%

Looking down the road to one of the biggest delegate prizes of them all, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a near tie in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Texas Republican Primary. A new telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Texas finds Romney earning 32% support to Santorum’s 30%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picks up 19% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs fourth with nine percent (9%). Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Texas survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just 29% Believe Limbaugh Apology Was Sincere

Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh’s recent comments about a female Georgetown University law student who argued in support of the Obama administration's contraception mandate sparked controversy and caused some advertisers to quit his show. Yet while most voters are critical of Limbaugh's comments, they are evenly divided over whether talk show hosts in general have a responsibility to not offend anyone. 
 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that only 29% believe Limbaugh’s apology for his recent comments was sincere. Fifty-three percent (53%) do not think his apology was sincere, and another 18% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 11-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

59% View Obama As More Liberal Than They Are

The number of voters who consider President Obama more liberal than they are has risen this month to its highest level since last October.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters now think, in political terms, that the president is more liberal than they are. That's up from 52% last month and an all-time low of 51% in December.  In March 2011, a high of 61% felt the president was more liberal.

Eleven percent (11%) feel the president is more conservative than they are, and 25% say his views are about the same as their own.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on March 7-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

37% Say Their Views More Like Obama’s; 53% Pick One of GOP Contenders

Ask voters which presidential contender’s views are more like their own, and just 37% say President Obama. Most (53%) say they think more like one of the four Republican presidential hopefuls. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 16% of Likely U.S. Voters say when it comes to the important issues facing the nation, their views are more like former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s. An identical number (16%) say they think more like Rick Santorum. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on March 9-10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Evenly Divided On Obama’s Handling of Economy

The number of voters who give President Obama positive marks for his handling of the economy is at its highest level in over two years of regular tracking.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters rate the president’s handling of economic issues as good or excellent, up two points from a month ago and his best showing since mid-February 2010.  Forty-two percent (42%) still rate Obama’s performance in this area as poor, but that's the lowest level of criticism since last June. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 5-6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 9, 2012

Following Super Tuesday, the perception is growing that Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee. By week’s end, Romney had moved ahead of the president in head-to-head polling.

In Alabama, the GOP Primary race is essentially a three-way tie, while Romney leads by eight in Mississippi.  Nationally, Romney now leads Rick Santorum by 12 points.  Regardless of who they want to win, 80% of Republican Primary Voters believe Romney will be the party's nominee.

Romney leads Obama by five points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Saturday's numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December and it comes at a time when the president’s job approval has been slipping a bit. Matchup results and the president’s Job Approval ratings are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

This is taking place as the economy remains far and away the most important thing on voters' minds this election season.  Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely U.S. Voters see the economy as a Very Important issue in terms of how they will vote in the next election. Nothing else comes close.

Mississippi Primary: Romney 35%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 27%, Paul 6%

Rasmussen Reports’ first Republican primary survey in Mississippi shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading his closest competitors by eight points. A new statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Magnolia State shows Romney with 35% of the vote, while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich each draw support from 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with six percent (6%). One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Mississippi survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Alabama GOP Primary: Gingrich 30%, Santorum 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 7%

Alabama Republicans are up to bat next, and right now it’s a near three-way tie going into next Tuesday’s primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Alabama finds Newt Gingrich barely ahead with 30% support to 29% for Rick Santorum and 28% for Mitt Romney. Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%) of the vote. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Alabama survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

64% Have No Opinion of Energy Secretary Steven Chu

Energy Secretary Steven Chu assured a congressional committee Thursday that the Obama administration wants to lower gas prices after comments he made last week suggested that the administration is more interested in reducing oil dependence than in lowering the price at the pump. Yet despite his central role in dealing with one of the country's current economic priorities, most voters still don't know enough about Chu to have any kind of opinion of him.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 14% of Likely U.S. Voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Chu, while 21% view him unfavorably. This includes four percent (4%) with a Very Favorable view of the Nobel Prize-winning Cabinet secretary and 12% with a Very Unfavorable one. However, even though Chu has been a member of President Obama's Cabinet for over three years now, 64% have no opinion of him. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide was conducted on February 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

15% View Russia’s Putin Favorably

Vladimir Putin’s back as president of Russia following Sunday’s elections, but that doesn’t mean Americans like him any more than they did when he was out of office.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of American Adults, in fact, share at least a somewhat unfavorable opinion of Putin, while just 15% view him at least somewhat favorably, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This compares with unfavorables of 52% and favorables of 11% last September. But back then 36% had no opinion, compared to 23% now.

The national survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on March 6-7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

43% Say New Candidate Should Enter GOP Race; Most Republicans Disagree

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney may be winning the Republican presidential race, although he appears to be making himself a little less popular in the process. A plurality of voters think it would be better for the GOP if a new candidate jumped in the race, but most Republicans don’t agree.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters now hold at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Romney, but that includes just nine percent (9%) with a Very Favorable view of him. Forty-nine percent (49%) regard Romney at least somewhat unfavorably, with 23% who share a Very Unfavorable opinion. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 5-6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

42% Give Obama Good or Excellent Marks for Leadership

Views of President Obama's leadership have narrowed again since his State of the Union address in January.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Obama’s leadership as good or excellent. This is down from 48% in January, his highest positives since September 2009. But nearly as many (40%) view him as a poor leader, up from 34% in January. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.