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Commentary by Michael Barone

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July 26, 2016

What's 'Making America One Again' About? By Michael Barone

"Make America One Again." That was the stated theme of the last night of the Republican National Convention. In the welter of analysis of Donald Trump's acceptance speech, few have commented on it, but it's worth taking it seriously.

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July 22, 2016

Is America Ready for a Disruptive President? by Michael Barone

Disruptive. That's a good word to describe Donald Trump's presidential candidacy, and to describe the sometimes-ramshackle Republican National Convention his campaign more or less superintended in Cleveland this past week.

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July 19, 2016

Will Trump's 'Other People's Money' Campaign Prevail Over Clinton's Standard Tactics? By Michael Barone

Donald Trump postponed the announcement of his vice presidential candidate, Mike Pence, because of the terrorist attack in Nice, which was in line with the modus operandi of his campaign. He didn't want to preempt news media coverage of another radical Islamist terrorist attack.

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July 15, 2016

Events Roil the 2016 Campaign by Michael Barone

"Events, dear boy, events," the late British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan supposedly replied when asked what he most feared. And events can certainly make a difference, as was apparent this week: Prime Minister David Cameron moved out of No. 10 Downing Street and Theresa May moved in. This came after British voters, against Cameron's advice and contrary to widespread expectations, voted to leave the European Union June 23.

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July 12, 2016

Will the National Conventions Change the Delegate Selection Rules -- Again? By Michael Barone

When the Republican and Democratic national conventions gather in successive weeks in Cleveland and Philadelphia, respectively, one item on their plates will be reconsideration of their parties' nominating rules. Just about everyone agrees that they are unsatisfactory in some way or another, and many itch to do something about it.

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July 8, 2016

Hillary Clinton's Non-Indictment May Not Help Her By Michael Barone

Unindicted co-conspirator: Technically, the term, made familiar in the Watergate scandals, does not apply to Hillary Clinton, since no one has been or apparently will be indicted in the emails case.

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July 5, 2016

Racial Discrimination on Campus Likely to Go on Forever By Michael Barone

"Affirmative action" will continue to be the routine course of business of college and university admissions for the foreseeable future. That's the bottom line from the Supreme Court's June decision in Fisher v. University of Texas.

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July 1, 2016

Brexit Due to Failure of Elites, Not Bigotry of Masses By Michael Barone

Bigotry! Nativism! Racism! That's what elites in Britain, Europe and here have been howling, explanations for why 52 percent of a higher-than-general-election turnout of British voters voted for their nation to leave the European Union.

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June 28, 2016

Brexit Earthquake Hits Britain By Michael Barone

Earthquakes seldom hit the British Isles. But one did late Thursday night and early Friday morning, as the constituency returns started pouring in on the referendum to decide whether the United Kingdom would remain in or leave the European Union.    

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June 24, 2016

Trump Pivoting Away From Tabloid-Style Campaigning By Michael Barone

Donald Trump is the latest proof that the campaign always reflects the candidate and that the candidate is a product of his experience over the years. So, as Trump, after clinching the Republican nomination, reshuffles and rejiggers a campaign that has fallen behind Hillary Clinton, it's instructive to look at his political ground zero.   

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June 21, 2016

Why We Have -- and Probably Will Keep Having -- Sluggish Job Growth By Michael Barone

Why has the American economy had such sluggish job creation and economic growth? That's a pretty fundamental question, and one for which most conventional economists have had unsatisfying answers.   

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June 17, 2016

Brexit Causes Elites Angst -- But Britain May Leave EU Anyway By Michael Barone

"Market Angst as U.K. Edges to Exit," proclaims the headline on The Wall Street Journal's lead story. The exit referred to is Britain's departure from the European Union, a move that will be mandated if a majority votes "leave" rather than "remain" in the national referendum next Thursday.  

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June 14, 2016

Possible Errors in Exit Polls Suggest More Election Surprises Ahead By Michael Barone

Are the exit polls, on which just about every elections analyst has relied, wrong? That's a question raised by New York Times Upshot writer Nate Cohn -- a question whose answers have serious implications for how you look at the 2016 general election.

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June 10, 2016

Bernie Sanders Wins, Even While Losing By Michael Barone

Bernie Sanders is not going gently into that good night, at least not yet.

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June 7, 2016

Neither Candidate Is Getting the Immigration Issue Right By Michael Barone

No contemporary political issue has been more controversial, or has been subject to more dubious analyses, than immigration.

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June 3, 2016

The Dogs That Aren't Barking -- and Those That Are -- in 2016 By Michael Barone

Let's look back on the primary campaign -- completed for Republicans, still ongoing for Democrats -- and see if we can identify what Sherlock Holmes referred to as dogs that didn't bark.

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May 31, 2016

Cities Should Have Room for Everyone By Michael Barone

Nearly a century ago, in 1920, the Census Bureau caused a ruckus when it announced that, for the first time, a majority of Americans lived in cities -- even though its definition of a city included every hamlet with a population of 2,500 and above.

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May 27, 2016

Trump, Clinton Tied in Polls: Were All the Wise Men Wrong? By Michael Barone

It was conventional wisdom among the political cognoscenti during most of the primary season that Donald Trump could not win the general election. The evidence seemed strong.

Over 12 months of polling from May 2015 to April 2016, Hillary Clinton ran ahead of Trump in 63 national polls, while Trump led her in only six and tied her in three. Polls in the dozen or so 2012 target states showed similar results.

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May 24, 2016

Clinton Policies to End Pay Gap Would Just Make It Larger By Michael Barone

Women, lamented Hillary Clinton in an April 2014 tweet, make just 77 cents on the dollar to men. As a presidential candidate she has repeated that lament again and again, updating the numbers, in line with government statistics, to 78 cents in July 2015 and 79 cents this year.

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May 20, 2016

'Ferguson Effect' Is Real, and It Threatens to Harm Black Americans Most By Michael Barone

University of Missouri at St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld has had "second thoughts." Like many academic criminologists, he had pooh-poohed charges that skyrocketing murder rates in many cities in 2015 and 2016 result from a "Ferguson effect" -- a skittering back from proactive policing for fear of accusations of racism like those that followed the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, in August 2014.