Commentary by Alan I. Abramowitz

May 22, 2014

Nationalization of Senate Elections Poses Challenge to Democrats in 2014 By Alan I. Abramowitz

Democrats face several challenges in trying to maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate in the 2014 midterm election. In addition to the normal tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections, Democrats are defending 21 of the 36 seats that are up this year including seven seats in states that were carried by Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. Moreover, six of those seats are in states that Romney carried by a double-digit margin.

May 1, 2014

The Minimal Class Divide in American Politics By Alan I. Abramowitz

How deep is the class divide in American politics today? According to some scholars and pundits, it is very deep indeed. In a recent post on the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University, the author of Unequal Democracy and a highly regarded public opinion scholar, presented evidence from a multi-nation public opinion survey that showed the relationship between income and support for cuts in government spending was considerably stronger in the U.S. than in other industrial democracies. Because of the disproportionate political influence wielded by upper-income citizens in the U.S., Bartels argued that their strong support for spending cuts has had a powerful influence on elite attitudes and ultimately on government policies.

April 15, 2011

Why Democrats Could Take Back The House in 2012 By Alan I. Abramowitz

Between 1932 and 1994, Democrats controlled the U.S. House of Representatives for 58 of 62 years. Since then, however, party control has changed three times, with Republicans controlling the House from 1995 through 2006, Democrats from 2007 through 2010, and Republicans since then.

June 12, 2009

Back to the Future for Obama By Alan I. Abramowitz

Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election represented one of the most dramatic shifts in political power in American history. In terms of both style and substance, the contrast between Obama and George W. Bush is perhaps as great as that between any incoming and outgoing presidents in the modern era. Yet the historic nature of this election should not blind us to the high degree of consistency between the results of the 2008 election and previous elections. New evidence on the results of the 2008 presidential election at the congressional district level reinforces this point.

May 1, 2009

The Obama Generation By Alan Abramowitz

Americans under the age of 30 played a major role in the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. According to the 2008 national exit poll, 18-29 year-olds made up 18 percent of the electorate and they cast 66 percent of their votes for Obama vs. 32 percent for his Republican rival, John McCain.

April 17, 2009

Independent Voters and the President: Myths and Realities By Alan Abramowitz

The importance of partisanship in contemporary American politics is widely recognized. Among the public as well as political leaders, party divisions run deep and it is increasingly clear that the arrival of a new President in Washington has done little to change that fundamental reality.

April 9, 2009

Diverging Coalitions: The Transformation of the American Electorate By Alan Abramowitz

The election of America's first black president has been widely hailed as an historic event. However, much less attention has been paid to the demographic trends which made that event possible and which will continue to affect elections and politics in the United States far into the future. In this article I examine those trends and their consequences for the American party system.

February 13, 2009

The False Hope of Bipartisanship By Alan Abramowitz

It's not a matter of "if." It's a matter of "when." As in, when will all of the feel-good rhetoric about Democrats and Republicans joining hands to solve the nation's problems come to an end and open partisan warfare resume in Washington?

October 10, 2008

Thirty Days and Counting By Alan Abramowitz

With one month remaining in the 2008 presidential campaign, national and state polling data indicate that Barack Obama holds a clear lead over John McCain.

July 25, 2008

The Myth of a Toss-Up Election By Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato

"Too close to call." "Within the margin of error." "A statistical dead heat." If you've been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you're probably familiar with these phrases.

July 18, 2008

Does Obama Have a Problem with White Voters? by Alan I. Abramowitz

"Poll Finds Obama's Run Isn't Closing Divide on Race," reads the headline on the front page of the July 16th New York Times.

July 11, 2008

Is Time on John McCain's Side? By Alan I. Abramowitz

In a recent Crystal Ball article , Michael Baudinet of the University of Virginia Center for Politics argued that despite a very difficult national political environment for Republicans, John McCain has a good chance of winning the 2008 presidential election because he enjoys one key advantage over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama: McCain clinched his party's nomination three months earlier than Obama.

May 29, 2008

Can McCain Overcome the Triple Whammy? By Alan I. Abramowitz

With the long and contentious Democratic nomination race finally winding down, the attention of the media and the public is beginning to shift to the general election. In November, voters will face a choice between two rather atypical presidential candidates.

May 15, 2008

This is Not Your Father's (Or Mother's) Democratic Party By Alan Abramowitz

Forget about soccer moms and NASCAR dads. The key voting bloc in 2008 is the white working class. According to the new conventional wisdom of American politics, the presidential candidate who can win the support of white working class voters will have the inside track on becoming the next president of the United States.

May 2, 2008

The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base By Alan Abramowitz

Discussions of the current political situation and comparisons between the 2008 election and earlier contests frequently overlook a crucial fact. As a result of changes in American society, today's electorate is very different from the electorate of twenty, thirty, or forty years ago.

April 3, 2008

Superdelegate Math By Alan I. Abramowitz

It is becoming increasingly clear that the outcome of the Democratic presidential nomination will hinge on the votes of the party's so-called superdelegates, elected officials and party leaders who are automatically entitled to attend the Democratic nominating convention regardless of the results of the primaries and caucuses.

March 14, 2008

McCain Addendum: Are Stay-at-Home Conservatives a Threat to John McCain? By Alan I. Abramowitz

Several alert readers of last week's Crystal Ball article have contacted me in the past week to question my claim that the greatest threat to Republican unity in 2008 comes from moderates, not conservatives.

March 6, 2008

The Real Threat to McCain?: A Commentary by Alan I. Abramowitz

A lot of Republicans are unhappy with their party this year. Some conservative Republicans, following the lead of talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, have been threatening to sit out the November election or vote for a third party candidate because they don't consider their party's presidential nominee, John McCain, to be sufficiently conservative.

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