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Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 38%, Republicans 38%

Republicans and Democrats run even for the second straight week on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending August 18.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 38% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while another 38% would choose the Democrat instead.  The two parties were even at 39% the week before.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 12-18, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending August 16, 2013

President Obama may be on vacation this week, but he and his administration still made plenty of news.

Just before the president left for vacation, he announced in a press conference tighter restrictions on the National Security Agency’s domestic surveillance program.  But most voters still don’t trust the government to protect their constitutional rights, and very few expect the program to cut back on monitoring the phone calls of innocent Americans.

29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, August 11.

That’s up two points from the week before, and up three from the previous two weeks' finding of 26%, which marked the lowest level of confidence since mid-January 2012. Confidence in the country's direction rose steadily last fall, peaking at a high of 43% the week just before Election Day. It's been gradually decreasing ever since.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 5-11, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama's National Security Positives Fall to A Two-Year Low

Positive ratings for President Obama's handling of national security are at their lowest level in over two years of weekly tracking.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate the president’s handling of national security issues as good or excellent.  A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that just as many (38%) give him a poor rating in this area.  (To see survey question wording, click here).

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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 11-12, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

53% See Conflict Between Economic Growth and Fairness

Most voters still believe policies that encourage economic growth are more important than those promoting economic fairness, and they’re more likely now to think there’s a conflict between the two. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds 93% of Likely U.S. Voters say, in thinking about the economy, policies that encourage economic growth are at least somewhat important.  That includes 68% who say they are Very Important.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 7-8, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

43% Say Obama Good or Excellent Leader, 42% Say Poor

Most voters continue to see President Obama as a liberal, and views of his leadership have returned from post-election highs to levels seen for much of his first term in office. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters now rate the president as a good or excellent leader, unchanged from last month. Just as many, however, (42%) consider his leadership poor, up four from July. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The two surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on August 7-8 and August 9-10, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 39%, Democrats 39%

Republicans and Democrats run even on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending August 11.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 39% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while another 39% would choose the Democrat instead. The week before, Republicans led by three -- 41% to 38%, the largest gap between the two parties since mid-April.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 5-11, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Think Health Care Law Will Increase Deficit

Most voters continue to have an unfavorable opinion of the health care law, and believe it will increase the nation’s deficit and drive up health care costs. 

Forty-one percent (41%) of Likely Voters have at least a somewhat favorable impression of the health care law, while 54% view it unfavorable, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.  This includes 20% with a Very Favorable opinion of the law and 39% with a Very Unfavorable one.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 17-18, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Have Felt No Impact from Health Care Law

Most voters still have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama’s national health care law but acknowledge that it has had no impact on them.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Likely U.S. Voters share an at least somewhat favorable view of the health care law, while 53% view it unfavorably, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This includes 15% with a Very Favorable opinion of the law and 42% with a Very Unfavorable one. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 9-10, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending August 9, 2013

Who’ll be the next in line?

Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite among Democratic voters for their party’s presidential nomination in 2016. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie holds a narrow lead among Republicans for the 2016 GOP nomination. 

But not so fast. Clinton was also the clear favorite in August 2005, three years before the 2008 Democratic National Convention. She subsequently lost in the primaries to Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Meanwhile, GOP voters who say Christie is the candidate they least want to see nominated outnumber those who support him by 10 percentage points.

History has shown us time and again that 2016 is not likely to end up as a matchup of the current front-runners, Clinton and Christie, Scott Rasmussen says in his latest weekly newspaper column. 

35% Think Global Warming Is A Very Serious Problem

Most voters remain at least somewhat concerned about global warming, but they still have mixed opinions about what causes it. Most think scientists don't agree on the cause either.  

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of Likely Voters believe global warming is at least a somewhat serious problem.  Thirty-four percent (34%) don’t agree.  This includes 35% who think global warming is a Very Serious issue and 11% who say it's Not At All Serious.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 5-6, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

27% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, August 4.

That’s just a point higher than the previous two weeks' finding of 26% which marked the lowest level of confidence since mid-January 2012. Confidence in the country's direction rose steadily last fall, peaking at a high of 43% the week just before Election Day. It's been gradually decreasing ever since.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 29-August 4, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 41%, Democrats 38%

Republicans now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending August 4.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. The week before, Democrats led by one - 39% to 38%.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 29-August 4, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

48% Still Want Their Governor To Fight Health Care Law

Voters remain closely divided over whether their state should have its own health care exchange, but roughly half still want their governor to oppose implementation of President Obama’s national health care law.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters now want their governor to support implementation of the health care law in their state, but 48% want their governor to oppose implementation instead. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 3-4, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending August 3, 2013

In this 50-50 nation, Americans remain closely divided over whether government is the problem or the solution.

10% Rate Congress As Good or Excellent

Voters aren’t exactly singing Congress’s praises, but they’re giving it ever-so-slightly more positive ratings this month.

A new Rasmussen Reports national survey finds that 10% of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Congress’s performance as good or excellent. That’s up from seven percent (7%) at the beginning of July and the first time Congress' positives have reached double digits this year. Still, two-thirds (66%) of voters give Congress poor marks. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 30-31, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

President Obama’s Full-Month Approval Rating Stays at 47%

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

President Obama’s total job approval held steady at 47% in July, tying the president’s lowest approval rating since December 2011. The president’s ratings for the past two months are more in line with his approval during most of his first term in office.

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26% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

For the second week in a row, 26% of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, July 28.

That ties the finding from the previous week, the lowest level of confidence since mid-January 2012. Confidence in the country's direction rose steadily last fall, peaking at a high of 43% the week just before Election Day. It's been gradually decreasing ever since.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 22-28, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Republicans Still Trusted More on Economy

Voters are almost evenly divided when asked which party they trust more to handle the 15 important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports, but they continue to favor Republicans most on the number one issue, the economy.

New national telephone surveying finds that the GOP is trusted more on seven issues, the Democrats on eight. In late May and early June, voters trusted Republicans more on 10 out of 15 issues after the post-election bounce for President Obama and his party had subsided. That was a complete reversal from March. 

Republicans are trusted more on the economy, taxes, job creation, government spending, issues affecting small business, gun control and national security.  Democrats earn more trust from voters when it comes to energy policy, the environment, Afghanistan, immigration, government ethics and corruption, health care, Social Security and education. On three of these issues, however, Democrats post just a one-point lead. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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Three national surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on July 18-19, 24-25 & 28-29, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Employment Index Falls to 2013 Low

The Rasmussen Employment Index which measures worker confidence dropped 10 points in July to its lowest level since last November.

At 83.1, worker confidence is down four points from the beginning of the year but is still up three points from a year ago. The Employment Index reached a near six-year high of 94.4 in May. The Index is down 24 points from June 2007.

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The survey of 9,104 working Americans was conducted in July 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.